Wave Knowledge

Verifying the surf forecast with visuals at the break - Ask a Surf Forecaster

DailyStoke.com: How often do you go to the breaks to check the swell in person? It seems like it must be a mix of science, art, guesstimating, surf cams and first person insight. You can’t be everywhere, of course. One of the most common questions we hear is: “Is [Kevin on Surfline] really seeing what I’m seeing?”

Socalsurf.com: I look at the beach in person, every day that I write forecasts…and usually on the days that I don’t write forecasts.

I think that you hit it on the head when you say that a report is a mix of art/science. All of the science and observation factors are there…but it takes a live human, hopefully one that really surfs, to put it all together. I can’t tell you how many times that I have seen all of the pieces of the puzzle line up for what should be a good day of surf but for some reason shape still just sort of sucks. If you don’t have eyes on the beach you would never know.

The human side of it has its weaknesses as well. I actually think that it is important to have some sort of familiarity with your forecaster or your surf reporter…you sort of need to understand where they are coming from? What the term “good” shape means to them? What do they consider small surf? What do they consider blown out?

It is sort of like having a friend give you the report…you have to put it through your own personal filter. I have buddies that always overcall it…so when they tell me it was pumping at Newport or something I automatically hack off a couple of feet in my mind. But I also have guys that say that it is just OK when it is firing…if I hear one of them say it was good I am usually in the truck halfway to the beach before they finish telling me about it.

If you have some consistency with who is doing the reporting then you start to get a feel for what they “mean”, which I think is pretty important.

Adam Wright runs www.socalsurf.com and is a professional
meteorologist. He’s been a surf forecaster since 1999, and covers SoCal and Baja for Wavewatch.com as well as the weekly snow and surf outlooks for Fuel.tv. DailyStoke happens to think there is no better resource online to understanding waves, in plain English, than
Socalsurf.com. Learn more there, now!

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